IFTF Foresight Talk: Nestle’s Global Consumer Insight & Market Intelligence Mgr, Dimitri Gerebtzoff

good morning
good evening to some of you my name is max alder and I am a research director
here at the Institute for the future in our food futures lab and I will be
facilitating this foresight talks session today I’m so excited actually to
do this for many reasons one of which is that Demetri and I have interacted a few
times before and he’s a wealth of insightful information about foresight
about food so I can’t wait to hear what he has to say today our foresight talks
I’ll get into a little bit and run through the agenda for the day before I
do so I just want to say thank you all for joining this is a really really
wonderful program that the Institute has started to roll out this year and
Dimitri thank you in advance for your time your insights your knowledge your
expertise mica Dimitri runs global consumer insight and market intelligence
for Nestle and this is a really unique and wonderful opportunity to hear a
little bit about how someone inside one of the world’s largest food companies
thinks about the future and how he and his team track trends and come up with
new forecasts to drive business opportunities before we get into the
conversation I just want to talk a little bit about foresight talk this is
a new program that our learn team has been developing really trying to grow
foresight capabilities across our global community through creating new types of
enhanced connections mutual learning opportunities and really better
awareness of all of the community’s needs
we as many of you probably know have been doing a lot in our education
program trying to upskill different people around the world across
industries across geographies in four sites and we’ve realized that there is a
gap in the broader community and we’re trying to help create a platform that
enables that sort of shared learning a mutual connection so that we can all
help create better futures so thank you all for participating in this please let
us know what you think whether these are valuable and I’ll have my email at the
end of this please reach out we’re trying to build a global community
of foresight practitioners and this is one of many attempts at trying to create
that really robust foresight community I also just want to share quickly some
resources to help you all do your own futures thinking in your work and in
your lives one is that we at the Institute host foresight practitioner
trainings Dimitri went through one of them so I’m sure he has lots of ideas on
how they work and he can maybe talk a little bit about his experience there we
do them both in palo alto and around the world and you’ll see some upcoming dates
for our three day trainings these are really nuts-and-bolts immersions in our
foresight methodologies really wonderful wonderful some of my favorite things
that i do at the institute is help facilitate these trainings amazing
people from around the world like Dmitri come and spend three days together to
really dive deep into strategic foresight and we’ve also recently
launched a new design futures course which really focuses on not just how to
do strategic foresight but how to do immersive experience all foresight
really at the intersection of design futures and foresight we have we’ve our
first training completely sold out we’ve opened up another one in April of 2020
and there’s much more information about all these trainings on our website
finally one of the things that I’m most excited about is that I FTF is
developing an online course on Coursera and this will be the world’s first set
of massively open online courses that are grounded in futures thinking my
colleague Jane McGonigal has been leading the development of them and
really everyone across the Institute for the future has been involved we’re
really hoping that this creates a platform to expand futures thinking
beyond these walls and really to around the world and
democratizes it in a way that I don’t think it’s ever really been done before
so this is a really ambitious project and we’re so thrilled to have Corsairs
partnership on it we’ll send some more information to you all once it’s fully
launched and we have these foresight talks we do
them quite regularly and there are two upcoming foresight talks that I just
want to get on your radar I’ll remind everyone at the end of this conversation
but quickly the first is a Jane McGonigal a research director at the
Institute for the future is going to host a foresight talks to walk through
our futures thinking online courses on Coursera and that’s on November 14th
there’ll be a really wonderful way if anyone’s interested in exploring the
course or if anyone wants to try to roll out the course in their company or for
their organization or their community group doesn’t need to be just
professional this is also a wonderful approach to your personal life and
familial life so tune in to hear Jane talk about our training and then what
I’m really excited about is a conversation on December 11th with
someone at the u.s. Forest Service research and development department the
u.s. Forest Service actually has an internal futurist
and they’ve done wonderful and provocative work on topics such as the
future of forests in the United States so we’re gonna host a conversation to
see how governments can embed foresight into their work and interesting and
domains that maybe we often don’t think of so thinking about how to embed
foresight into how we manage forests globally I think is a really interesting
and provocative conversation and I’m sure that we’ll be talking about what
those insights and learnings might mean for other domains as well so put those
on your calendars and without further ado I’m just gonna jump into the agenda
for today like I said I’m so excited to hear Dimitri talk a little bit about his
work at Nestle and his team he has a little micro presentation that he’s
going to give so I will have Dimitri introduce himself he’ll start sharing
his screen and walk through a couple of slides of his work around the world
I will then follow up with a couple of questions but I’m sure you all are much
more interested in your questions not mine
so after I asked one or two follow-up questions we will open up the Khan
and the way to do that is I see many of you who are already conversing in the
chat box you all can talk and chat throughout
this presentation there there is also you’ll see a button in zoom for Q&A
please submit your questions that you’d like to ask the mitri in the Q&A and we
will filter those through and we will hopefully get to as many as we possibly
can I’m hoping that we can have about a good 25 minutes of questions from you
all we are recording this for you all to
watch and to share and for those who couldn’t make it they can watch this
afterwards so know that this is being recorded and also know that you are all
on mute so have your breakfast be loud do whatever you need to do we won’t hear
you but also if you ask a question we won’t hear you so please submit
questions through the Q&A button without I guess further ado Dimitri thank you
again so much for joining us I’m so excited to hear what you have to share
with us all today could you share your screen and start to talk a little bit
about who you are I would love to hear a little bit before you jump into your
presentation about how you ended up at Nestle doing this kind of work and I
know you have a short presentation and we’ll follow up with some questions
afterwards very good so hi everyone my name is
Demetria hats-off I’m the global consumer insight and market intelligence
manager at Nestle and basically so how I got to Nestle is a bit of an interesting
route I don’t have a standard CV which quite a few other people have so i
started by looking or researching animal behavior and i was focusing on memory
formation and so i studied actually biology and ethology
which is behavior science and looking at animal behavior and the impact of
drugs on side effects in animals and then I moved to the same effects on
autistic children and I work for Novartis for my industry for a few years
and after that I moved actually to a Dutch company which is called Aldous and
they are creating tools and systems and software hardware to observe behavior so
I’ve always been into understanding interaction between objects or things
and animals or humans and my would say my the key things which I’m working on
is usually nonverbal behavior more than verbal behavior so what are the people
doing more than what they are saying so while being in this company I I was a
branch of his manager for France Belgium and Switzerland so I was developing the
hallmark there and one of my tea customer was Nestle so I installed at
Nestle several consumer research labs which we’re facilities to observe
consumer behaviors with cameras software to analyze automatically or manually
their behaviors and so that was a natural jump at certain points so ten
years ago I jumped onto Nestle and I worked for four and a half years at the
NRC which is the Nestle research center core Research Center in Lausanne and
then I moved to the food category five years ago so I’m working now for the
food category five years ago started really in consumer insight for product
launches so really understanding the ins and outs of the the needs of consumers
and tensions for concept development and product developments and then moving up
and up to the role I have right now which is a more strategic role I would
say and so in the role I’m playing right now is really the idea for me to
understand globally so worldwide and we usually split the world in three main
zones but understand worldwide trends related to
food and their impact on our strategy both in terms of category strategy and
in terms of brand strategies so that’s in a nutshell what I’m doing the food
category at Nestle is a 10 billion category roughly so or even a bit more
so it’s not a very small business it’s quite a significant business at Nestle
and so when you take decisions to move to certain directions within the 10
billion business you want to be kind of pretty sure that’s of what you’re doing
before investing because yeah Nestle is quite large quite big and so on one side
we have some power and some force to move in directions on the other side
it’s also seen as a kind of a big giant slow Enterprise so we need also to
predict the future early enough to be able to move these forces to the right
directions so yeah and so now I’m going to focus a little bit more on how we
sense the future and I welcome all of you to the future of food at Nestle
that’s how we call all the work we are doing around predicting or thinking
about the future and the impact of these future – – Nestle first of all one of
the things which everybody knows but which is really important for us is we
see the the food has exploded all over the place and I am sure that you all see
that it’s something which we hear often when we hear talks and etc it’s
exploding on all of them all over the place so initially we can see that at
the threat because basically you have so many players popping up and gaining
market shares and inventing new things which we don’t think about etc on the
other hand we can see all of these booming elements as really opportunities
opportunities to move to new categories to new channels
and you have Amazon fresh over there to new ways of consumption from consumers
Street foods for example is moving into really new directions entering in the
homes of consumers a blurring of the different channels from what you order
online eat at home order outside or go and shop eat outside
and etc all of that environment is changing quite fast and my role and and
basically when we talk to the markets and I have to deal with roughly 92
hundred different markets around the world when I talk to the markets the
markets will all say my market is super different to all the other ones my
consumers are very different to all the other ones we need to nurture these
local elements which are so important and I fully agree with them my role is
also at one point you try to understand where are the similarities where are
groups of consumers or cohorts of consumers going and what is happening Oh
food is pop food is there it’s all over the place and what do we do with it so
my role then is and together with with our colleagues in the same Department
what we are doing is really to look into what are the trends what is happening
and we have different ways to look at that and I’ve just highlighted a few
elements here when I talk about trends it’s on one side the food-related trends
we’re really dealing with cuisines with ingredients with products and etc but
it’s also all the other aspects which we are looking for as an example regional
elements or labels claims what is happening also in terms of companies so
startups all and regulation obviously which is impacting heavily what we are
allowed not allowed so the frame in which we can
work on all of that is really shaping the way we are moving forward and
obviously the most important which you see on the top right corner here our
consumers that’s the most important element for us so what we really want to
understand is how are consumers living or organized and and and dealing with
all these changes all this word all this world and what is happening around us
the good elements the positive elements which they are picking the negative
elements which they want to avoid or getting away from and our role or my
role is then to look into all these and then to try to make sense of that and
the most importantly to lend it to really business opportunities well tell
me what you eat and I will tell you who you are so that’s what we try to
understand really what consumers are eating and then to to be able actually
to create clusters of consumers clusters of trans clusters of elements and then
study these elements in the deep manner so in the role I’m in and together with
my colleague we try to focus on three different aspects to sense the future
and to really focus on trends the first one is transversely and I already said a
few words around that but basically what we want to do is really to deliver four
sides so thoughts about how where the world is going in the future and then
understand the impact of these possible futures on our business so that’s the
first aspect and the different elements we which we try to understand is
obviously cuisines so what is happening around the world in different cuisines
because cuisines are impacting the food that consumers are exposed to and eating
and both out the form and in home then ingredients so individual components
superfoods goji berries and all of these elements which we see flying around we
try to understand and we try to understand them from an
ingredients point of view but also from a sourcing point of view is it
sustainable not sustainable what is the whole value chain and obviously also
from a culinary point of view so the taste the texture the integration with
other elements the how how all of that works together and we also try to
understand the consumption habits of consumers so how often do they eat at
home what do they eat what kind of utensils are they using and
all of that across the world and you can guess that a kitchen in Guatemala will
look very different from a kitchen in Germany or in Malaysia or in Indonesia
and so while I say that it also means that the things we are looking at may
not have a direct connection to a food or may have a broader connection to food
but we understand that they might have an impact on food as an example we look
at the size of kitchen in the world because the size of kitchen means how
much space I have to to cook or to prepare stuff and etc so that’s also an
important element and so all of these elements we try to look for and to to
understand then the second aspect is landing this element in a strategic
framework and here that’s probably the most difficult part scouting or looking
for trends is quite easy with what we have today all the information actually
what is difficult is to make a selection among all what we have available there
are so many reports so many tools available to automatically gather data
but the amount of information you can get is is very easy then landing that
information what we do is we create usually a framework in which will have
several macro trend then set trends and micro trend to allow us to focus on the
things which we feel are the most interesting for us and I will explain in
a second we do that and then also to be able to
prioritize the trends we want to really focus on and we do do that in a rolling
way to make sure that we don’t live with the same trend over for several years
and then we end up understanding that it’s not anymore
interesting so these strategic landing is very important and the third aspect
is all our network within and outside of Nestle so I have counterparts which do
the same piece of work than I do in other Nestle categories in other markets
within my category and also in other entities outside of Nestle and we have
very good very regular meetings and interactions to make sure sure that we
stay connected with the outside world and with what is happening and obviously
we have also networks of consumers which we have a lot of interaction with so our
focus in all of that is to make sure that whatever trends we look for and
because we honestly we are a company which needs to make money our key focus
is how can we bring frequency and volume in the product we are creating to make
sure that the consumers will go for them so we are focusing on dishes which
consumers are eating often we are focusing on food which the consumer are
eating often and etc we will hardly ever even if we look for the trends on more
niche elements in the end what we want is to landed in a business proposition
which makes sense at the broad scale we cannot develop things which will only
suit a very minor number of consumers in only a few countries we really need
these scale aspects so how we do that drop assumption listen to signals and
frame actions so we have a ecosystem of different tools which we are using from
early trance counting then to trance analysis we have digital platforms which
we are looking for we have even also open innovation
platform so with interaction with the external world as I was saying we have a
scientific community looking at more the scientific and technological trends we
look also for innovation venture funds so which are the venture capitals
putting their bets and their money on which startups so we have systems to
scout all of that and we have our network as I was saying and all of these
insights help us to understand where our trends going what are the things which
are happening and at one point what we do with these elements is we set down
and we generate scenarios or assumptions we think that the world is going to go
in that direction and we have identified four major directions in which nestle
overall wants to go and this is available to the outside world so it’s
around authentic flavors authentic food the second one is around healthy
lifestyle so healthy food and the third one is around experiences so really
experiencing different types of foods different types of cuisines and etc the
last one which we are working a lot at the moment on is on sustainability
elements obviously and so sustainability is key for us and we are tracking also
that’s but we are tracking that in the frame of what we are doing within within
food so I’m not dealing for example with the plastic elements as long as it’s
outside of the food environment so I prefer to have a kind of holistic view
so I’m not the one who is going to look at technological improvements around
individual plastic components are more the one going to look for what are the
consumers thinking about plastic how are they evolving what are the implications
for the business for each of our categories for our brands where our
brands positioned around plastic and etc so that’s the the way we move forward
then I was explaining that we try to learn these elements into a strategic
and business opportunity and we look at two things on one side we look at the
attractiveness and on the other side we look at the ability to win so attractive
attractiveness is how relevant it is to consumers to markets so to specific
geographies how what are the barriers which block us from rolling this trend
out or with which blocks these trends from moving forward so that can be also
independent of Nestle overall what are the things which block it is it more the
consumers are on not understanding because it’s too scientific
is it more a technological barrier at the moment is it more a willingness to
go for it or etc an ability to win will be more what are the manifestations
which we already see on the markets what is our and is the ability to
differentiate from competition do we have here things which we can put
forwards and obviously is it aligned with our strategy and our strategy at
Nestle globally so here we want to make sure that whatever we go for or we
develop fit with our commitments which Nestle has made fit with our food
strategy and etc so we look at these different elements and we have a system
or a grater to rank all the trends or to give points to all the trends according
to these different topics and what we do with it is then we look at the score for
each of the trend but also where does the trend land in these different
aspects all these different elements and then what we want to focus on is the
tipping point and the tipping point is when do we feel the trend is mature
enough that it’s interesting for Nestle to enter but not mature too much that it
became mainstream or too many of our competitors already entered and etc and
when I talk about teachers is not only the big players it
can be also small players as I was explaining at the beginning beginning of
my talk small players moves fast nowadays can gain market share quite
fast so we need to understand and this tipping point is is really moving or
changing depending on the category depending on the brand depending on the
trends so we we are we really need to focus on understanding these different
elements how they move between each other so the maturity of consumers the
maturity of Technology the maturity of the fit to our own estate strategy etc
we and with that grid and with that tool we can understand depending on the
scenario we want to push forward how is that tipping point moving is it
something we need to really deal with today not right now because otherwise
because the technology is ready for example or do we need to move it a
little bit further down the road and with that it allows us to prioritize the
different trends but prioritize them based on our assets based on the Nestle
strategy but also based on the the consumer willingness and my role
actually is not to tell my strategic partner we need to go there it’s more to
initiate discussion so I will tell them ok these are the different options which
we see this option is good if we do this and that this other option is better if
we do these other things this third option if we really want to push that
technology forward that’s the best option and then I leave it to them or
it’s an interactive discussion between all of these people so we really do
along the year frequent workshops and group discussions to really think about
the implication of that and then the brand manager will say oh I want to push
my brand forward so we should go for that but the technological person will
say no no no no no the technology is not yet ready if we do it right now we will
shoot in our own foot because we will not be able to sell our proposition
which is enough competitive to really bring for example the price to a reason
level first and etc so I bring the frame and I look at these different people
then confronting their views and with that we define them where do we want to
go all together so that’s the way we go from strategy to execution so when we
have defined to finalize when we have defined what we want to go for and done
the priorities we do usually what I call a sizing and business opportunity so
within that frame of a trend we look for what are our business opportunities so
where do we feel in terms of which consumer group which technology are we
going to use for which etc and with these elements it allows us to go from
the global trend which we see to our own business opportunity and then to size
them and here we have different tools so we use all kind of different tools to
size the category to size the frequency at which the consumers use or each
similar product to size our technological advantage and etc and then
eventually it brings up to a certain value which we then use in order to
understand is it something we want to go for or is it at the moment too small and
then we prefer to wait or is it something we don’t want to go at all at
the moment so that’s a little bit how we do that and then we go to the execution
which is then a more standard approach ideation concept prototyping interaction
with consumers and then and then products development and product
launches or product when I took product its product services apps at cetera so
it can cover the whole range of things we can do overall then just as an
example if you slide a few pictures to show you that it’s not something we do
exclusively at the desk it’s also something we do in a very dynamic way
going out experiencing cuisines that’s the nice part of my job being able to
try a lot of different foods discussing with our
chefs so we have a group of experienced chefs coming really
so cooks who expose us to different cuisines tell us what are the
possibilities and etc and then sharing with our networks to be able to go to
real consumers and with real consumers to be able to understand what are the
tensions what do they really want bring that back with in this way and then
explore the different scenarios which we are doing so that’s about it for me I’d
like to finish with a nice quote of Jamie Oliver I’ll give you a few seconds
to read and I open the directory to any questions you would have amazing thanks
Dimitri so much and I love the Jamie Oliver quotes there is certainly always
something new and amazing to learn about food we have a bunch of really great
questions that are emerging and I’ll let people submit some more and I’ll just
ask one right now and then we’ll all turn to sharing some from those who are
tuning in and the question that I’m really interested in your background in
biology and ethology and maybe to go to begin our questions back at the
beginning you your work at Nestle clearly is not just about studying
behavior although I feel like a lot of forecast work involves understanding
shifts in how humans behave but it also is likely about how to shape human
behavior and so I’m wondering a lot of what we’ve just heard is very much about
tracking monitoring understanding directions of change and I want to know
to what extent is your work about keeping your ear to the ground and
sensing and anticipating the future of food and to what extent does your work
really about shaping a different future of food and how do you balance those two
that’s a very good question of thanks to ask the ambition would be obviously or not
the ambition I think I feel that it’s a bit you topic to
think that we can shape a lot the future of consumers so on one side we are
sensing a lot of information the shaping the future for me goes more towards what
what are the products we can offer to consumers to answer attention and that’s
the way I feel that if we are the first ones to be able to identify clearly what
a major attention consumers have be it’s in a very poor country where consumers
have really difficulties in getting just a simple food on the plate all the way
to more mature or more advanced countries where they explore all kind of
different food from around the world our role is more to understand core
tensions the consumers have and then to try to solve them and I perceive that if
we manage to solve really strong tensions with consumers then we can
shape basically or-or-or en the way they are going to change their behaviors but
that we I don’t feel that and I don’t know how we could basically create a new
product because it’s it’s all about food in the end so we are creating creating
products around food it’s not like inventing a new technology or digital
technology or something which will give you a third arm and bringing something
brand new it’s all about food so on the other hand if we manage really to create
and I can take her and I back in the days when when Maggie created the cube
the cube changed the life of millions of people because it was 45 and so because
of these focus fortification in vitamins in iron and etc a lot of consumers have
changed drastically their behaviors and and
using the the Maggi cube in their in their daily routine which they were not
doing and even changing the way they are cooking the way they are preparing the
food the number of times they are cooking per day because they have that
available so I feel it goes more in that direction understanding clearly and
really deeply and that requires a lot of work the consumer tension answering to
that and that changes the the behavior yeah yeah I love that answer I’m gonna
turn to some questions that have been submitted and there’s actually there’s a
cluster of questions that I think are quite interesting and worth exploring
around this notion of a tipping point yeah
and so from what I’m reading from people it I think we would love to hear a
little bit more about both the criteria that you determine when a sort of
tipping point has been reached what that threshold is and how you determine it
and then maybe a follow up to this sort of initial question that I asked is what
what role do you all think that you play in creating those tipping points though
certainly it’s one thing to see all the dominoes and see that there are oh my
gosh aligned and ready to be pushed and then it’s a totally other thing to
figure out how and when you might push them to cascade the reaction so how do
you measure track tipping points and what are the signals that you all see
that prove to you that a tipping point has been reached so first of all I’ll be
very transparent if only I had a precise and final answer about you we’re doing
first of all I will not be there I would have probably my own company second miss
Lee would be in a better shape than it is right now so we are doing very good
in some aspect but not so good in others so we would be fantastic everywhere so
first of all it’s not a precise science sometimes it works
times or often we fail and that’s also why although I’m dealing with very
strategic element I’m also part of R&D because we fail often and we succeed
rarely so these science of identifying tipping
points and and basically bringing different curves together to understand
where they merge and where we want to go it’s definitely not an exact science and
so that’s the warning I wanted to give nonetheless what we are doing is first
of all we are looking at consumers so we have a lot of tools to look at online
social media discussions which allow us to understand from just simple words
which we input in these systems what is the amount of generated conversations
around these elements so that’s one thing which we can track and if that
element goes higher than a certain points then we move it to something we
track more often or we move it to the next level so that could be one of the
first levels on the other hand we also look and we always try to balance these
two we also look at what’s happening out of home so we look at what’s happening
in restaurants so high-end the restaurant but also men’s or limited
service restaurants full-service restaurant etc even small tapas bars so
we Scout not only big chains but we have also people who go on a regular basis
and look what’s happening in smaller places we work with agencies who do that
and the idea here is to not only look from a consumer point of view but look
from the outside world so the chef’s who master their culinary expertise and look
at what are they bringing in so and if we see the same ingredients or the same
technique or the same dishes popping up suddenly in different places around the
world it doesn’t need to be at one place it can be at different places then it
will trigger also our our selves to track more of that then we
look at technologies then we look at a net cetera so we have different
indicators and when the indicators reaches a certain level then we look
more closely or we start bringing these different indicators together so if
suddenly I see a shelf looking at a specific barrier or a specific
ingredient for quite some time or I see several chefs doing that I will input
that same element into the other systems to see what’s happening do we see it
also as well or it has not yet reached a certain level and why also maybe it’s a
different term used in different place at cetera and then when we see these
different elements reaching a certain level together at the same time then
that’s where we start to have the discussion about business opportunity
and then the tipping point is about where are our competitors around the
world are they also looking at that what are the products which have been already
lounged what are the number of startups which already have started really
looking into that particular trend where is our technology but also competitive
technologies going forward in that direction and then it’s about bringing
all these aspect together and having a discussion so the tipping point is not
something only a graph is giving and then as soon as it’s reached a certain
level as a woo tipping point and I take it it’s more about bringing these
different elements to the table and saying okay these are this is the
environment we see do you feel we should bring the tipping point forward because
it will give a clear Nestle advantage or do we move that lever a little bit
backward or do we leave that lever completely out and so and we do that
discussion with each an individual trend and also with each and individual early
signal which we see starting to to become more interesting for us so the
tipping point is really very much discussion around different stakeholders
and to take a decision based on the criteria I shared earlier
so these prioritization criteria but that so it’s a lot of quantitative data
which feed into a qualitative discussion in the end yes now I love that and
that’s such a great articulation of both the science and the art of sense making
and foresight so that’s a wonderful answer let’s talk a little bit about
maybe one domain that we might be seeing reaching a tipping points there were a
lot of questions about meat alternatives on the Q&A chat so how do you see the
trend of plant-based foods or meat free burgers what do you think about
impossible foods all of these sort of I hate to call them alternative proteins
because now has already reached the tipping point quite some time ago if you
look at how the Nestle investments together with McDonald’s and Burger King
and etc in the incredible burger we have a full range of god legume ace the brand
food and etc so the tipping point was I would say three four years ago that’s
where we started to initiate all our technological development because as you
can imagine it’s not within half a year that we can develop a full line in the
factory and understand exactly where we want to go and etc sometimes we can go
faster by doing Co manufacturing or merge and acquisition in other cases
when we really want to develop a competitive advantage that’s where we
really need to invest our time money and we really need to be early enough to
identify that tipping point so that tipping point went already quite some
years ago looking and it came from agriculture I would say when we
identified already like 20 years ago that if we move forward in the same way
simply the number of the number of field occurs needed to feed the population
with cows that collapsed and collided very heavily very drastically very soon
and that’s where we started to look for meat alternatives and so I will not
disclose too much information but I can tell you that now
meat alternatives or alternative proteins that’s the man that has gone
from a micro trends for five or ten years ago to accept rent to now a macro
trend so we have it really at the high level and now we look for very much more
fine-grained details around sub components within there for the future
so is the future going for insects or is the future going for fish alternative
which we see popping at the moment or is the future going for other alternatives
so we are really now going even one level down is the future more technology
or more we you see all these lab created means or is the future still being more
natural products and so we are exploring all the scenario based on the element
side so I explained to you earlier to identify among all of them beyond simple
creating burger patties and and really nice by the way we just warm some
competition against all the other burgers with our incredible burgers so I
can I think we can be quite proud there as being the most tasty and the most
natural the the the tasty burger among all the competitors at the moment so we
are going in the right direction with our transcoding foresight and with also
understanding all the sensory elements which are required across all the
different consumers because as you can imagine you have consumers who want
really something which mimics totally meat but you have other consumers who
don’t want that at all they are already flexitarian or vegetarian they are not
interested in something which is bleeding and looking like me they are
interesting which something which provides them with really good natural
proteins so and an N and that’s only to split like I I told you
our system is probably split in 15 18 different types of sub components within
that environment I love that and it’s a really helpful way of better
understanding a tipping point when you actually put a historical example into
context and understand how you saw that and how it’s changed I have a couple
other and maybe just to finish on that the tipping point now because milt
alternative if the tipping point when I passed that now we are recreating four
five or six sub tipping points so now we understand that meat-free alternative it
will go that way we are sure and that will be the future now within that
future what are the different options we have and we create new tipping points
for these different futures then we track them and then we have again these
discussions do we want to push that you think go forward or backwards so it’s
not something the tipping point is done we move on and we go for something else
it’s always something which like a tree you know where you start down there then
you move to the next level the next level evolves you choose one route which
is this one and that rule then evolves into five new routes with five new
tipping points so you choose this one and etc so that’s how how we work on
this constant flow it’s a beautiful analogy that’s really
helpful because so I guess we all just heard it here Nestle the future is
meat-free that’s tipping points already happened then the question is is the
future based on recombinant protein synthesis is it crickets
exactly I would not say the future is meat free I would say the future is
really good meat on the far less regular basis so nurturing that like caviar so
that will become really a more high-end appreciated product in a far smaller
quantity but I still feel if we stay there and I love me so but we will
really move towards far more sustainable solutions so fair enough I appreciate
that nuance you’re absolutely right I know we only have a few minutes left and
then we have a few concluding remarks I want to ask you one maybe one last
question and I we have a bunch of questions that we’ll just collect and
we’ll maybe share with you Dimitri to get your thoughts after we can share
with the group but there was a really great question that grounds all of this
work and it’s kind of a mash up of of – one is I want to ask how you measure
success and how you think of success because so much of forecasting in
general is looking out to possible futures and being comfortable being
wrong a lot because we’re not trying to optimize for accuracy at least the work
that we do at the Institute is trying to be internally consistent but provocative
and insightful and you can be wrong and be insightful in really interesting ways
so how do you measure success and at the same time there was a question really
about just like how do you keep on going how do you keep your team and yourself
motivated because the future is changing so quickly and we’re often so wrong and
these systems are so complex and confusing it’s really hard to maintain
this sort of urgent sense of optimism that at least we embody at the Institute
or maybe it’s business growth and strategy so how do you maintain a heavy
level of motivation to do this important work and then how do you measure your
success in in that yeah so for the how we do we keep the team motivated I think
I could go here yeah that would give the perfect answer I don’t think we really
need to be motivated look at the world outside look at the possibilities look
at the how evolutions how its evolving they are so many directions we can scout
go we can look for from pure technological systems virtual reality
all the way down to super interesting solution I just heard not so long ago a
startup created a system where with a slingshot you throw a GoPro camera in
the air above a field and they do that in South Africa
somewhere in very poor country is they throw it the data is automatically sent
to a super calculator which provides back just by throwing that webcam in the
air provides back information around what is the soul composed of what type
of crop they should grow at which time and and then taking also into account
trends so it will tell these people do you need to grow crops which are
becoming trendy because it will grow or so their businesses and etc so it goes
in all the direction in so many ways that I mean I don’t need to you to keep
the team excited and and because we are working in food at Nestle I’m working on
one day on one hour on pizza the next hour on chill dough the next hour on
spice mix the next hour on soup the next one on the bullion’s the next one on
table sauce is ketchup mayonnaise etc etc so it’s a broad array of
different possibilities which is super interesting and super exciting I love my
job then for you or the question which was
more around how do we measure success it’s a it’s a really good one because we
always fight for that it’s not easy on one side
Nestle being a big cooperation you need to have tangible objectives at the end
of the year to measure what you have done that surgery and how successful you
where and on the other side I’m working in super 4 side so really way at the
beginning of the whole product development meaning that whatever I do
may 4 2011 so on one side we met measure success still by looking at products on
the markets so that’s one of the things very tangible sales data because that
definitely that’s the way we predicted the the in
the past the way we predicted the future which is today where we successful so we
also look back at the data we we used in the past so that’s one thing on the
other side and I’m very grateful for that we have quite some freedom to fail
so to be able to identify things which will not go forward so success is for
example more around when we generate a framework has it been shared broadly
within Nestle hasn’t been used broadly strategically so do all the people who
can use the the tools we create or the framework around trends how many peoples
are aware of it using it is it really then supporting in the strategic
discussions is it supporting the strategic outcome so and it’s very
simple if a category lead is organizing a workshop where they look at the
pipeline is the future of food trends part of the discussion or not
so because the idea is we want to create a framework and to provide as much
insight and information to as many people within Nestle and it’s possible
that everybody uses the same frame so that we come to the same conclusion with
the same data and so that we move together in the same direction in the
end the the work of the markets and at the zone level is more to look at the specificities of the markets but then
within the frame we set so that we push the same forces forward so that’s part
of where we measure success is also around the network as I was saying
around the strategy and then around the trends themselves so by also looking at
competition are they looking at the same things than us so at our competitive
advantage I would say here did we manage to identify things before the others and
move them so forward to a certain level where we feel
the other Sunday yet I love I really love this notion of a clarity of
direction and creating a community to move forward in that direction being
flexible and how that looks very clear on where you’re going
Dimitri this has been so wonderful thank you all for joining this conversation I
really really really appreciate it I have shared both my email and
Dimitri’s email I know that there were a lot of really good questions that
unfortunately just didn’t have time to get to we will be reviewing those please
come to our future foresight talks webinars we are doing this to build this
community it is for you all not for us so please take advantage of these talks
share them with your colleagues and your friends sign up for them and please
reach out to us and let us know how we can make them more helpful and impactful
and insightful for you all in your foresight practices
Dimitri maybe if I have one thing attend the ifgf training I’m not paid by a FTF
I have participated to that training for me the not only it provides really
insightful tools and methods to think about scenario but it really helped a
lot with the community which is around ifts so we still have our whatsapp group
from the ITF and we still communicate every other day so sharing trends what’s
happening at cetera and because it’s such a wide range of people from so many
different part of the world and from so many different type of work you were
talking about the forest in in the in the USO that’s exactly what it is and it
provides really super insightful information so all of that together that
was really really it is a really really interesting training amazing right yeah
I couldn’t have said it better myself so thank you thank you all we’ll be sharing
this recording and Dimitri thank you for your work on the future of food we
presume when it come thank you for hosting me of course talk
to you all soon yes bye bye everyone

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